Introduction

Patients with decompensated cirrhosis have high mortality rates. Several prognostic scores have been developed, based on clinical and laboratory parameters, to assess the prognosis of patients with cirrhosis. However, to date, there is no consensus on the best prognostic model. The MELD 3.0 score was recently published with the aim of refining the MELD score to contemporary data.

Aims & Methods

The objective of this study was to evaluate and compare models based on the hepatic severity index to investigate their predictive performance in mortality.
A retrospective cohort study was conducted, including consecutively admitted patients to a Gastroenterology Department for first admission due to decompensated cirrhosis. MELD, MELD-Na, MELD 3.0, and Child-Pugh scores were calculated upon admission. Mortality at 6 weeks and 180 days was the main outcome studied.

Results

109 patients admitted for the first episode of decompensated cirrhosis were included, 82.6% with alcoholic aetiology. Mean age was 61.8 ±10.8 years, 73.4% were men and 26.6% were women. Of the included patients, 11% died within the first 6 weeks and 25.7% died within the first 180 days after admission.
All models showed good accuracy in predicting mortality at 6 weeks and 180 days, with slight superiority of the MELD 3.0 score (AUC 0.693, 95% CI 0.598-0.778 at 6 weeks; AUC 0.712, 95% CI 0.617-0.795 at 180 days), although statistically significant differences between the different prognostic models were not observed.

Conclusion

The use of models based on hepatic severity indices accurately predicts the risk of mortality at 6 weeks and 180 days in patients with decompensated cirrhosis. The new MELD 3.0 score showed superior predictive performance in mortality, although without statistically significant differences.

Introduction

With about 40% of adults infected with Helicobacter pylori (H. pylori), China has the highest number of gastric cancer (GC) cases worldwide.¹ Household transmission is the primary route for H. pylori infection,² and family-based testing and treatment has been proposed to mitigate GC cancer risk and prevent transmission.^1,3,4 A household-based transmission model for H. pylori would enhance understanding of H. pylori dynamics and inform intervention strategies. However, few models⁵ have been developed for H. pylori, and none incorporates household transmission.

Aims & Methods

We developed an agent-based household transmission model for H. pylori in China to study transmission patterns from 1990 to 2021. Building on our previous modeling framework,⁶ the model includes demographic and transmission components. The demographic simulation captures births, deaths, marriages, and mobility among youth, couples, and the elderly. Mobility parameters were calibrated using joint distributions of household size and generation from Chinese censuses of 1990, 2000, 2010, and 2020, allowing realistic household dynamics in China. In the transmission simulation, household and community transmissions were modeled using a susceptible-infected structure, applying density-dependent transmission within households and frequency-dependent transmission in the community. Contact rates, defined as the number of contacts adequate for transmission by an individual per year, were allowed to vary over time, and were dependent on the susceptible individual’s age. Contact rate variation was modeled by adjusting base rates with age- and year-specific multipliers, each following a continuously decreasing function. Simulations began in 1900, with the first 90 years as a burn-in period. Transmission parameters were calibrated and validated using data from our meta-analyses and a large national family-based survey from China in 2021⁷.

Results

The model aligned well with calibration targets. Key parameters and calibration results are summarized in the Table. Consistent with observed data, larger households had higher infection rates than smaller households. Three-generation households were more likely to have infected members than one- or two-generation households. Model calibration showed best fit when the within-household contact rate (0.2) was higher than the community rate (0.1), and when most infections occurred before age 20. Validation confirmed model accuracy: children’s infection probabilities were 31% with both parents infected, 21% with one infected parent, and 9% with neither. Our model found that family clustering became more pronounced in recent years with lower prevalence compared to earlier periods with higher prevalence.

Table. Calibration and validation results for the transmission model

Conclusion

We developed a novel agent-based model simulating community and household transmission of H. pylori. Our results confirm that household transmission is the primary infection route, and that childhood is the predominant period of acquisition. Notably, family clustering becomes more prominent in low-prevalence contexts. This model provides a valuable tool for evaluating various control strategies and offers insights difficult to obtain in real-world data. Future extensions could incorporate antibiotic resistance dynamics and adapt the model to other country contexts.

References

1. Ding, S.-Z. et al. Chinese Consensus Report on Family-Based Helicobacter pylori Infection Control and Management (2021 Edition). Gut 71, 238–253 (2022).
2. Malfertheiner, P. et al. Helicobacter pylori infection. Nat. Rev. Dis. Primer 9, 1–24 (2023).
3. Chey, W. D. et al. ACG Clinical Guideline: Treatment of Helicobacter pylori Infection. Off. J. Am. Coll. Gastroenterol. ACG 119, 1730 (2024).
4. Shah, S. C., Wang, A. Y., Wallace, M. B. & Hwang, J. H. AGA Clinical Practice Update on Screening and Surveillance in Individuals at Increased Risk for Gastric Cancer in the United States: Expert Review. Gastroenterology 168, 405-416.e1 (2025).
5. Rupnow, M. F. T., Shachter, R. D., Owens, D. K. & Parsonnet, J. A Dynamic Transmission Model for Predicting Trends in Helicobacter pylori and Associated Diseases in the United States. Emerg. Infect. Dis. 6, 228–237 (2000).
6. Blok, D. J. et al. The long-term impact of the Leprosy Post-Exposure Prophylaxis (LPEP) program on leprosy incidence: A modelling study. PLoS Negl. Trop. Dis. 15, e0009279 (2021).
7. Zhou, X.-Z. et al. Large-scale, national, family-based epidemiological study on Helicobacter pylori infection in China: the time to change practice for related disease prevention. Gut 72, 855–869 (2023).B1

Introduction

ESSENCE (NCT04822181) is an ongoing 247-week Phase 3, randomised, placebo-controlled trial evaluating the effect of the glucagon-like peptide-1 analogue, semaglutide 2.4 mg subcutaneous once weekly (OW) in participants with non-cirrhotic metabolic dysfunction-associated steatohepatitis (MASH). We report the baseline characteristics of the randomised participants.

Aims & Methods

Following a 14-week screening phase, 800 participants (part 1) of 1200 planned (part 2) with MASH and fibrosis stages 2/3 (F2/F3) were randomised 2:1 to receive semaglutide 2.4 mg subcutaneous OW or placebo OW added to standard of care. In part 1, the two primary endpoints at 72 weeks are resolution of steatohepatitis and no worsening of liver fibrosis, and improvement in liver fibrosis and no worsening of steatohepatitis. Based on a central pathologist evaluation, inclusion criteria were histological presence of steatohepatitis stages F2/F3 per the Nonalcoholic Steatohepatitis Clinical Research Network classification, and a non-alcoholic fatty liver disease activity score (NAS) of ≥ 4, with a score of ≥ 1 in steatosis, lobular inflammation and hepatocyte ballooning.

Results

800 participants (250 F2; 550 F3) were randomised. Mean (SD) age was 56 (11.6) years; 57.1% were female; ≥ 99% had ≥ 1 cardiometabolic risk factor(s) in accordance with the metabolic dysfunction-associated steatotic liver disease (MASLD) definition. Mean (SD) NAS was 5.05 (0.95), and higher in F3 versus F2 (5.11 [0.95] vs 4.92 [0.93], respectively). Notably, participants with a higher NAS had more cardiometabolic risk factors for MASLD (52.9% with NAS ≥ 5 vs 45.3% with NAS 4). Similarly, a greater proportion of participants with F3 had all five cardiometabolic risk factors versus F2 (52.9% vs 44.8%, respectively). Although cardiometabolic comorbidities were highly prevalent, 44.5% of participants did not have type 2 diabetes (T2D), and 27.3% did not have obesity. Normal liver transaminases were observed in 26.3% of participants (28% F2; 26% F3). Mean (SD) FibroScan liver stiffness was 12.8 (6.9) kPa, and values of < 8 kPa were observed in 15.3% of participants. Mean (SD) controlled attenuation parameter value was 329 (46) dB/m; mean (SD) enhanced liver fibrosis (ELF) score was 10.0 (1.0), and 43.5% of participants had an ELF score of < 9.8. Overall, 8.8% and 9.0% of participants with/without T2D did not meet any of the following non-invasive criteria: Fibrosis-4 index ≥ 1.3, vibration-controlled transient elastography ≥ 8.1, or ELF ≥ 9.8, and more participants with F2 (14.7–16.4%) did not meet these criteria versus F3 (4.5–6.7%).

Conclusion

The ESSENCE baseline population includes participants with significant fibrosis (F2 and F3) and approximately 91% of the trial population had ≥ 1 positive diagnostic non-invasive test. Cardiometabolic risk factors were found in ≥ 99% of participants, and in increased numbers in those with higher NAS and fibrosis stages.
This is an encore of an abstract that will be presented for the first time at the European Association for the Study of the Liver (EASL) Congress, 5–8 June 2024, Milan, Italy.

Disclosure

The ESSENCE trial is funded by Novo Nordisk A/S.
PNN: reports grants from Novo Nordisk, and has received consulting fees from Novo Nordisk, Boehringer Ingelheim, Gilead, Intercept, Poxel Pharmaceuticals, Bristol Myers Squibb (BMS), Pfizer, Sun Pharma, Madrigal and GSK. PNN also reports honoraria as a speaker for Novo Nordisk and AiCME; support for attending meetings for Novo Nordisk; and participation on an advisory board for Novo Nordisk, Boehringer Ingelheim, Gilead, Intercept, Poxel Pharmaceuticals, BMS, Pfizer, Sun Pharma, Madrigal and GSK.
EB: served as a consultant or advisory board member for Boehringer Ingelheim, Gilead, Intercept, Merck, Novo Nordisk, Pfizer, ProSciento, and as a speaker for Gilead, Intercept, Merck, Novo Nordisk and Pfizer. EB has also received a research grant from Gilead for fatty liver research.
VR: received consulting fees from Novo Nordisk, Sagimet, Madrigal, Enyo, Poxel, Northsea, Intercept and ProSciento, and research grants (to institution) from Gilead and Intercept.
MER: consults for Boehringer Ingelheim, CytoDyn, GSK, Novo Nordisk, HistoIndex, Intercept, Madrigal, NGM Bio and Sonic Incytes.
MR: reports grants from Boehringer Ingelheim and Novo Nordisk, and has received fees for consulting or participation in advisory boards for Boehringer Ingelheim, Echosens, Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk. MR also reports honoraria as a speaker for AstraZeneca, Boehringer Ingelheim, Novo Nordisk and Madrigal.
AJS: consults for and advises Avant Santé and AstraZeneca. AJS also consults for and has received grants from Akero, BMS, Intercept, Eli Lilly, Madrigal and Novo Nordisk. AJS consults for and owns stock in Rivus, and also consults for AGED Diagnostics, Albireo, Alnylam, Altimmune, Boehringer Ingelheim, 89Bio, Echosens, Genentech, Gilead, GSK, HistoIndex, Mallinckrodt, Merck, NGM Bio, Novartis, PathAI, Pfizer, Poxel, Regeneron, Salix, Siemens, Surrozen, Takeda, Terns and Zydus. AJS owns stock in Durect, Exalenz, Genfit, Indalo, Inversago and Tiziana, and has received royalties from Elsevier and Wolters Kluwer.
KAE, IK, LHØ, DV and JZ: employees and stockholders of Novo Nordisk A/S.

Introduction

Currently, there is no approved medication for the treatment of Metabolic Associated Fatty Liver Disease (MASLD). However, numerous clinical trials have examined the effect of antihyperglycemic agents on MASLD in type 2 diabetic (T2D) patients, given the close association between T2D and this hepatopathy, both of which are closely linked to insulin resistance. Our aim is to evaluate and compare the therapeutic effects of different hypoglycemic agents in patients with MASLD and T2D.

Aims & Methods

This is a prospective cross-sectional study involving 200 T2D patients over a 6-month period. The presence of hepatic steatosis was confirmed by abdominal ultrasound and/or a Fatty Liver Index (FLI) score greater than 60 in 122 patients. Hepatic fibrosis was assessed using FibroScan in all patients with MASLD. Two comparative studies were conducted to identify the therapeutic effects of hypoglycemic medications on hepatic steatosis and significant fibrosis, defined by a LSM value ≥ 8 kPa.

Results

Patients were predominantly female (73.2%) with a median age of 59.76 ± 10 years. The duration of T2D, although longer in cases of steatosis, was not statistically significant. Glycemic control, assessed by fasting blood glucose and HbA1c levels, was less optimal in patients with MASLD, with an average HbA1c level of 8.98%, compared to patients without hepatic steatosis, who had an average HbA1c level of 8.74% (p=0.002). A similar trend was observed with fasting blood glucose levels (81.96% vs 73.07%), but it did not reach statistical significance.

Degenerative complications, regardless of their type, were comparable between the two groups.

The prescription of biguanides was associated with a reduced risk of hepatic steatosis (p=0.05), while insulin use was frequently observed in patients with steatosis, with a statistically significant correlation for long-acting human insulin and rapid-acting analogs (33.61% vs 19.23% in the absence of steatosis, p=0.02) and (4.92% vs 0% in the absence of steatosis, p=0.05) respectively. No other therapeutic modality, including different classes of oral antidiabetic agents, was correlated with the risk of steatosis.

The prescription of sulfonylureas and rapid-acting insulin analogs was associated with a higher risk of significant hepatic fibrosis, with p-values of 0.05 and 0.008 respectively. In contrast, the use of long-acting human insulin was less frequent in patients with significant fibrosis, with a statistical correlation of 0.03. No other treatment modality, including various types of oral antidiabetic agents, was associated with the risk of fibrosis.

Conclusion

The use of biguanides appears to reduce the risk of hepatic steatosis, while insulin therapy, particularly rapid-acting analogs, is associated with an increased risk of hepatic steatosis and fibrosis. These observations emphasize the importance of an individualized therapeutic approach to optimize the management of MASLD in type 2 diabetic patients. Further studies are needed to validate these associations

References

Tang W, Xu Q, Hong T, Tong G, Feng W, Shen S, et al. Comparative efficacy of anti‐diabetic agents on nonalcoholic fatty liver disease in patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus: a systematic review and meta‐analysis of randomized and non‐randomized studies. Diabetes Metabolism Res. févr 2016;32(2):200‑16.

Yan J, Yao B, Kuang H, Yang X, Huang Q, Hong T, et al. Liraglutide, Sitagliptin, and Insulin Glargine Added to Metformin: The Effect on Body Weight and Intrahepatic Lipid in Patients With Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus and Nonalcoholic Fatty Liver Disease. Hepatology. juin 2019;69(6):2414‑26.

Introduction

The interleukin 36 (IL-36) family includes the agonists IL-36α, IL-36β, IL-36γ, which activate the NF-κB pathway and the natural antagonist IL-36RA, which inhibits IL-36 signaling. While missense mutations in the gene encoding IL-36RA (IL36RN) are associated with severe skin inflammation, their role in Crohn’s disease (CD) is currently unknown. Therefore, we here investigated if IL36RN mutations contribute to inflammation in CD and whether IL-36 signaling might represent a potential drug target for personalized therapy.

Aims & Methods

Mutations in IL36RN were identified by whole exome sequencing (WES) followed by targeted Sanger sequencing. Peripheral blood mononuclear cells (PBMCs) of affected patients were analyzed by mass cytometry and serum cytokines were measured by ELISA. Identified IL36RN mutations were characterized by overexpression experiments and functional assays. Clinical and molecular responses of one IL-36RN mutant patient to combined treatment with spesolimab and certolizumab pegol was assessed by fecal calprotectin, endoscopy and mass cytometry at week 0 and 12 of treatment.

Results

In a cohort of 86 ulcerative colitis patients, 244 CD patients and 45 healthy controls, we identified 4 CD patients with heterozygous missense mutations in IL36RN (IL-36RA S113L, IL-36RA P76L and IL-36RA L133I). In the patient carrying the IL-36RA S113L variant, we detected elevated serum levels of IL-18 and IL-23, as well as an increased frequency of TH17 cells in PBMCs, suggesting an overactivation of the IL-36 pathway. Overexpression experiments showed that IL-36RA S113L causes decreased expression of IL-36RA, resulting in increased IL-36 signaling. The patient was therefore treated with 1200 mg of the IL-36R blocking antibody spesolimab every 4 weeks and 200 mg of certolizumab pegol biweekly on the basis of an Out Of Scope request. This approach resulted in reduced intestinal inflammation and a reduction in the frequency of pro-inflammatory myeloid cells in PBMCs.

Conclusion

In this study, we show that pathogenic IL36RN mutations are present in a subset of CD patients and that blocking IL-36 signaling may represent a personalized therapeutic approach for this rare subset of patients in whom conventional biologic therapies have failed.
Disclaimer: Boehringer Ingelheim was given the opportunity to review the abstract for medical and scientific accuracy as well as intellectual property considerations in relation to the potential mention of BI substances.
Boehringer Ingelheim had no role in the design, analysis or interpretation of the results in this study.
Spesolimab was made available on the basis of an out of scope request. Boehringer Ingelheim was given the opportunity to review this abstract as a courtesy.

Disclosure

Britta Siegmund has served as consultant for Abbvie, Abivax, Arena, BMS, Boehringer, CED Service GmbH, Celgene, CT Scout, Endpoint Health, Falk, Forga Software, Galapagos, Janssen, Lilly, Materia Prima, Pfizer, Takeda, Pharma Insight, Predictimmune, PsiCro; Speaker fees: AbbVie, BMS, CED Service GmbH, Chiesi, Falk, Ferring, Gilead, Janssen, Lilly, Materia Prima, Takeda, Pfizer and grant support by Arena/Pfizer (served as representative of the Charité).