Introduction
When esophageal cancer is diagnosed at an advanced stage, it requires a highly invasive treatment, and its prognosis is poor. Although the number of endoscopic examinations has been increasing globally, esophageal cancer is still difficult to diagnose at an early stage. The rapidly increasing number of endoscopic examinations performed over a short period might influence diagnostic performance. Accessing the association between calendar month and esophageal cancer detection rates might improve policy and guide institutional support.
Aims & Methods
We aimed to evaluate the association between the increased number of examinations over a certain period and esophageal cancer detection rates (EDR) among a large population in the Korean National Cancer Screening Program (KNCSP). We performed a retrospective population-based study using the KNCSP database for gastric cancer between 2015 and 2019. We included 28,032,590 Koreans aged ≥40 years. We assessed monthly EDR and performed a negative binomial regression model and least square mean evaluation to evaluate the association between the screening month and EDR.
Results
In total, 28,032,590 subjects underwent upper endoscopy, according to KNCSP. The monthly number of subjects who underwent examinations was the highest in December (n=4,819,606, 17.2%). EDR tended to decrease towards the end of the year, and EDR was the lowest in December 2015 – 2019 (0.06 – 0.08). In the multivariable logistic model, the association of calendar month with detected cancer remained after adjusting for other confounding factors (December 2015: odds ratio, 0.58; 95% CI, 0.43 – 0.79; P < .001; 2016: odds ratio, 0.51; 95%CI, 0.38 – 0.67; P < .001). The age group adjusted the calendar month, and the predicted detection rate significantly decreased at the end of the year compared with the beginning of the year in 2015, 2016, and 2017 respectively.
Conclusion
In the KNCSP, the workload of endoscopists increased excessively, with an increasing number of examinations towards the end of the year, as demonstrated by decreased EDR during this period.