Introduction
Esophageal varices (EV) are a critical complication of portal hypertension in patients with cirrhosis, and early detection is essential to prevent potentially life-threatening hemorrhage. The Baveno VII consensus recommends performing endoscopy in patients with transient elastography (TE) values exceeding 20 kPa and platelet counts below 150,000/mm³. While endoscopy remains the gold standard for diagnosis, non-invasive tests are gaining importance as a promising alternative for predicting EV(1) .The objective of our study is to predict the grade of varices in cirrhotic patients using a score derived from both their biological blood test results and clinical parameters.
Aims & Methods
The objective of our study was to predict the grade of varices in cirrhotic patients using a score derived from their biological blood test results and clinical parameters. This retrospective study involved patients recruited from Hôtel-Dieu de France, with data collected a few months prior to their gastroscopy for esophageal varices detection.
We calculated the ALBI-PLT score based on the method described by Inoue-Yuri et al.(2). The modified ALBI-PLT (mALBI-PLT) score was derived from the mALBI grade, assigning 1 point for grades 1 or 2a, and 2 points for grades 2b or 3. It also incorporated platelet counts, awarding 1 point for counts greater than 150,000/μL and 2 points for counts of 150,000/μL or lower. In addition to the mALBI-PLT score, we considered various variables, including blood test results and established predictive scores such as Child-Pugh, MELD-Na, FIB-4, and APRI.
Results
This study analyzed 108 cirrhotic patients (mean age: 63.94 years, 64.8% men, 33.03% had hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC)) out of 115 recruited, excluding cases with missing data. Key predictors of varice grades included lymphocyte count (L, β = −0.43, p = 0.011) and sodium (Na^10, β = −3.22 × 10^−22, p = 0.005) as significant negative associations. Positive associations were observed for the modified ALBI-platelet score (β = 0.43, p < 0.001), HCC (β = 0.51, p = 0.005), and gastrointestinal (GI) bleeding (β = 0.48, p = 0.013).
A derived formula for predicting varice grades is: VariceGrade = 3.49 − 0.43×ln(L) + 0.43×mALBI-PLT score − 3.22×10^−22×Na^10 + 0.51×HCC + 0.48×GI Bleeding.
The model showed strong specificity (94.5%) for identifying varices when the score was ≥ 1 and high sensitivity (97.8%) for excluding grade 3 varices when the score was ≤ 2.
Conclusion
This study introduces a non-invasive scoring system to accurately stratify esophageal varices severity, optimizing clinical decision-making and endoscopic screening in cirrhotic patients.
References
(1) de Franchis R, Bosch J, Garcia-Tsao G, Reiberger T, Ripoll C, Baveno VII Faculty. Baveno VII—Renewing consensus in portal hypertension. J Hepatol. 2022;76:959–974. doi: 10.1016/j.jhep.2021.12.022.
(2) Inoue-Yuri M, Enomoto H, Wakabayashi I, Yuri Y, Aizawa N, Ikeda N, Takashima T, Fujiwara A, Yoshioka R, Kawata S, Yoshihara K, Ota S, Nakano R, Shiomi H, Nishimura T, Nishiguchi S, Iijima H. Modification of the ALBI-PLT Score for the Prediction of High-risk Varices. In Vivo. 2022 May-Jun;36(3):1360-1366. doi: 10.21873/invivo.12839. PMID: 35478164; PMCID: PMC9087093.
