Introduction

Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is the leading cause of death in patients with cirrhosis. Indeed, several risk stratification scores have been developed to anticipate early detection in order to better codify their management, including the Toronto Hepatocellular Carcinoma Risk Index (THRI). It is a simple and validated tool that has been developed to predict the risk of HCC in patients with cirrhosis and is mainly based on the following parameters: etiology, age, sex and platelet count.
The objective of this study was to evaluate the reliability of the THRI score in predicting the occurrence of hepatocellular carcinoma.

Aims & Methods

We conducted a monocentric retrospective study collecting all cirrhotic patients over an 8-year period [2008-2015]. Clinico-biological data, disease severity, and long-term outcomes were collected.
THRI was calculated for all patients, and were classified according to HCC risk into three levels : low HCC risk (<120), intermediate HCC risk (between 120 and 240), and those with high HCC risk (>240).
A statistical study using the SPSS tool was carried out. The performance of this score was evaluated with the area under the receiver operating characteristics curve (AUROC).

Results

We included 120 cirrhotic patients with an M/F sex ratio equal to 0.5. The mean age was 57 years [14-85]. The most frequent aetiology of cirrhosis were viral C (49%) and viral B (31%). The mean overall survival was approximately 6 years after diagnosis.
Twenty-five patients developed HCC during follow-up (20.8%). Patients who developed HCC had a higher THRI score than those who did not develop HCC : 264.8 ± 48.6 versus 232.3 ± 64.8, respectively with p-value = 0.008
Patients with a low risk of HCC were 5 (4.2%), none of whom had developed HCC. Fifty-eight patients (48.3%) were at intermediate risk, 12% of them (N=7) had developed HCC. The remaining 57 patients (47.5%) were at a high risk and 31.6% of them (N=18) developed HCC during their follow-up.
The AUROC for the THRI to predict HCC was 0.649 ([95% CI 0.533–0.765]. The cutoff THRI value in predicting the occurrence of HCC was 235.5 with a sensitivity of 72% and a specificity of 50%.

Conclusion

According to our study, the THRI score appears to be an effective tool for predicting the occurrence of HCC in cirrhotic patients. Its good sensitivity allows to identify the high-risk HCC population for early screening.