Introduction
Metabolic dysfunction–associated steatotic liver disease (MASLD) is now the most prevalent chronic liver disease worldwide. The FIB-4 score is widely used for fibrosis risk stratification; however, in patients classified as intermediate risk, it is uncertain whether reassessment of FIB-4 at 1 year represents the most appropriate approach.
Aims & Methods
This prospective single-center study aimed to compare 1-year changes in non-invasive fibrosis tests (NITs) and liver stiffness in patients at intermediate risk. Adult patients with MASLD and intermediate FIB-4 risk at baseline were included. We assessed the 1-year longitudinal variation in FIB-4, APRI, NFS, and MAF-5 scores and correlated these changes with liver stiffness measured by vibration-controlled transient elastography (VCTE). Predictors of significant fibrosis, defined as liver stiffness ≥8 kPa, were also identified. Model discrimination was assessed using ROC analysis, and predictors were evaluated using multivariable binary logistic regression.
Results
Of 761 patients evaluated, 188 had intermediate FIB-4. Most patients were male (60.6%, n=114), with a mean age of 61.2 ± 9.2 years. At baseline, VCTE was compatible with significant fibrosis in 55.4% (n=106).
MAF-5 showed the highest diagnostic accuracy (AUROC=0.77), followed by NFS (AUROC=0.70), FIB-4 (AUROC=0.66), and APRI (AUROC=0.60). Only MAF-5 showed a significant longitudinal association with changes in liver stiffness (Spearman’s ρ=0.385, p<0.001). An increase of ≥20% in MAF-5 was an independent predictor of fibrosis progression (OR 4.30; 95% CI 1.27–14.61; p=0.019).
In multivariable binary logistic regression, type 2 diabetes mellitus (OR 4.00; 95% CI 2.08–7.70; p<0.001) and obesity (OR 2.64; 95% CI 1.39–4.99; p=0.003) were independent predictors of significant fibrosis.
Conclusion
MAF-5 outperformed the remaining NITs and most accurately reflected fibrosis progression over one year. Its use in clinical practice may help guide patient referral, and the presence of risk factors such as diabetes and obesity may contribute to increased risk.
References
European Association for the Study of the Liver (EASL), European Association for the Study of Diabetes (EASD), and European Association for the Study of Obesity (EASO). "EASL-EASD-EASO clinical practice guidelines on the management of metabolic dysfunction-associated steatotic liver disease (MASLD)." Obesity facts 17.4 (2024): 374-443.