Introduction
Precision medicine aims to expand upon the summary average treatment effects reported in clinical trials by providing more refined, individualised estimates of treatment effects. The phase IIb TUSCANY-2 study (NCT04090411), which examined the efficacy and safety of afimkibart (RO7790121/RG6631; previously PF-06480605/RVT-3101), an anti-TL1A antibody, in patients (pts) with moderate to severe ulcerative colitis (UC), previously reported clinically meaningful treatment effects at UEGW 2024.1 Here, we report post hoc analyses of the relationship between baseline clinical characteristics and Week 14 efficacy in pts enrolled in TUSCANY-2.
Aims & Methods
Pts were randomised to receive subcutaneous afimkibart 50mg, 150mg, 450mg or matched placebo (PBO) monthly during induction. In this post hoc analysis, all afimkibart doses were pooled, and the endpoint of interest was clinical remission by modified Mayo score (mMS; defined as stool frequency subscore=0 or 1; rectal bleeding subscore=0; and endoscopic subscore [ES]=0 or 1) at Week 14. Our investigation of more patient-specific treatment effects was guided by the Predictive Approaches to Treatment effect Heterogeneity (PATH) statement.2 We developed a regularised logistic regression model to predict the probability of Week 14 remission and to help examine heterogeneity of treatment effects based on the following baseline characteristics: mMS, C-reactive protein (CRP), serum albumin, Robart’s Histopathology Index (RHI), number of failed advanced therapy classes, corticosteroid use, disease extent, disease duration, age and sex. Baseline faecal calprotectin (FCP) was investigated separately due to the extent of missing data.
Results
The proportion of pts achieving clinical remission by mMS at Week 14 in the afimkibart pooled dose arm was 32.5% (65/200; 90% confidence interval [CI]: 27.3 to 38.1) compared with 13.3% (6/45; 90% CI: 7.1 to 23.8) of pts in the PBO arm (treatment delta: 19.2%; 90% CI: 7.6 to 27.9). Based on calibrated predictions from the multivariate model, all of the individual TUSCANY-2 pts (both treated with PBO and afimkibart) had anywhere between a 2–76% probability of Week 14 remission at baseline. The clinical characteristics included in the model explained ~10% of the variability in the observed outcomes. There was no evidence that the clinical characteristics were associated with heterogeneous treatment effects on the relative scale (odds ratios appeared to be constant; p-value >0.5). On the clinically meaningful absolute scale, the treatment delta in the top 50% of pts with a higher baseline probability of remission (27–76%) was 28.5% (90% CI: 8 to 42; 45.2% in afimkibart pooled dose arm vs 16.7%, in PBO arm), compared with a treatment delta of 7.6% (90% CI: –7 to 18; 18.8% in afimkibart pooled dose arm vs 11.1%, in PBO arm) in pts with a lower baseline probability of remission (2–27%). Lower baseline CRP, lower RHI and higher serum albumin contributed to a greater probability of remission and absolute benefit from treatment with afimkibart.
Conclusion
Pts with inflammatory bowel disease (IBD) have diverse baseline characteristics that are associated with variability of treatment outcomes, yet clinicians rely on reported averages from clinical trials to make individual treatment decisions. This analysis demonstrates how precision medicine approaches, that account for diverse characteristics, may improve interpretation of positive IBD clinical trial results. Integrating genetic and novel biomarkers alongside clinical features could help to better predict individual outcomes for pts with IBD.
References
1. Danese S, et al. Presented at UEGW 2024 (Oral presentation OP079).
2. Kent D, et al. The Predictive Approaches to Treatment effect Heterogeneity (PATH) Statement. Ann Intern Med 2020;172:35–45.
Disclosure
This study was sponsored by F. Hoffmann-La Roche Ltd. Third-party medical writing support, under the direction of the authors, was provided by Victoria Dagwell, MSc, of Ashfield MedComms, an Inizio company, and was funded by F. Hoffmann-La Roche Ltd.
LP-B reports consulting or advisory role/board from AbbVie, Abivax, Adacyte, Alimentiv, Amgen, Applied Molecular Transport, Arena, Banook, Biogen, Bristol Myers Squibb, Celltrion, Connect Biopharm, Cytoki Pharma, Enthera, Ferring, Fresenius Kabi, Galapagos, Genentech, Inc., Gilead, Gossamer Bio, GSK, IAC Image Analysis, Index Pharmaceuticals, Inotrem, Janssen, Lilly, Medac, Mopac, Morphic, MSD, Nordic Pharma, Novartis, Oncodesign Precision Medicine, ONO Pharma, OSE Immunotherapeutics, Pandion, Par' Immune, Pfizer, Prometheus, Protagonist, F. Hoffmann-La Roche Ltd, Samsung, Sandoz, Sanofi, Satisfay, Takeda, Telavant, Theravance, Thermo Fischer, Tigenix, Tillots, Viatris, Vectivbio, Ventyx and Ysopia; speakers’ bureau from AbbVie, Alfasigma, Amgen, Arena, Biogen, Celltrion, Ferring, Galapagos, Genentech, Inc., Gilead, Janssen, Kern Pharma, Lilly, Medac, MSD, Nordic Pharma, Pfizer, Sandoz, Takeda, Tillots and Viatris. JRA reports consulting or advisory role/board from Janssen, Pfizer, AbbVie, Vedanta, Genentech, Inc., Seres Therapeutics, Ferring, GSK, Merck, Bristol Myers Squibb, Roivant, Celltrion, TRXBio and Shattuck Labs; speakers’ bureau from AbbVie and Janssen. SD reports consultancy fees from AbbVie, Alimentiv, Allergan, Amgen, Applied Molecular Transport, AstraZeneca, Athos, Biogen, Boehringer Ingelheim, Bristol Myers Squibb, Celgene, Celltrion, Dr Falk Pharma, Lilly, Enthera, Ferring Pharmaceuticals, Gilead, Hospira, Inotrem, Janssen, Johnson & Johnson, Morphic, MSD, Mundipharma, Mylan, Pfizer, F. Hoffmann-La Roche Ltd, Sandoz, Sublimity, Takeda, Teladoc Health, TiGenix, UCB, Vial and Vifor; lecture fees from AbbVie, Amgen, Ferring Pharmaceuticals, Gilead, Janssen, Mylan, Pfizer and Takeda. PSD reports employment at Northwestern University; consulting or advisory role/board from AbbVie, Adiso, Alimentiv, Celltrion, Genentech/Roche, Geneoscopy, Janssen, Shattuck and Takeda; research funding from Takeda and Bristol Myers Squibb. AB reports employment and stockholder from Pfizer. DEC reports employment and stock ownership from Pfizer. EP reports employment, stock or other ownership interests and patents, royalties, other intellectual property from Pfizer. SN reports employment and stock or other ownership interests from Pfizer. MSV reports employment and shareholder from Pfizer. KH reports no conflict of interest. LU reports employment at Genentech, Inc. CS reports employment, stock or other ownership interests from Genentech/Roche. DB reports employment at F. Hoffmann-La Roche Ltd. KL reports employment and stock or other ownership interests from Genentech, Inc. BES reports honoraria for consulting from AbbVie, Adiso, Agomab, Alimentiv, Amgen, AnaptysBio, Arena Pharmaceuticals, Artugen, AstraZeneca, Biolojic Design, Biora, Boehringer Ingelheim, Boston Pharmaceuticals, Calibr, Celgene, Celltrion, ClostraBio, Equillium, Enthera, Enveda, Evommune, Ferring, Fresenius Kabi, Fzata, Galapagos, Genentech/Roche, Gilead Sciences, GSK, Gossamer Bio, Imhotex, Index Pharmaceuticals, Innovation Pharmaceuticals, Inotrem, Kaleido, Kallyope, Merck, Microbiotica, Mitsubishi Tanabe, Mobius Care, Morphic, MRM Health, Nexus, Nimbus Discovery, Odyssey, OSE Immunotherapeutics, Palisade Bio, Progenity, Prometheus Biosciences, Prometheus Laboratories, Protagonist, Q32 Bio, Rasayana, Recludix, Reistone, Sanofi, Sorriso, Spyre, Surrozen, Target RWE, Teva, TLL Pharmaceutical, Tr1X, Union and Ventyx; consulting/speaking fees from Abivax; consulting/speaking fees/other support from Lilly; research grants/consulting/speaking fees/other support from Bristol Myers Squibb, Lilly, Janssen, Pfizer and Takeda; research grants/consulting fees from Janssen; stock/stock options from Ventyx.