Introduction
Fibrosis stage is the accepted histological determinant of prognosis in metabolic dysfunction-associated steatotic liver disease (MASLD), and biopsy staging is widely used to set follow-up. Yet most events in MASLD are cardiovascular or oncological, not hepatic. Whether liver histology also stratifies extrahepatic risk, or is informative only for liver-specific endpoints, is rarely tested against competing outcomes in one cohort.
Aims & Methods
To determine whether baseline histology stratifies extrahepatic as well as hepatic risk, we studied a retrospective longitudinal cohort of 396 adults with biopsy-proven MASLD across a multi-site tertiary network (Imperial College Healthcare NHS Trust, London; 2003–2025), with competing aetiologies excluded per 2023 multi-society criteria. Biopsies were scored by the NASH Clinical Research Network system: advanced fibrosis, F3–F4; definitive metabolic dysfunction-associated steatohepatitis (MASH), NAFLD Activity Score (NAS) ≥5; lobular inflammation, grades 2–3 vs 0–1; hepatocyte ballooning, present vs absent. Outcomes were composite liver-related events (incident cirrhosis, hepatic decompensation, hepatocellular carcinoma), cardiovascular events, extrahepatic malignancy, all-cause mortality, and a major composite of the first, second and fourth. Kaplan-Meier/log-rank and Cox models adjusted for age and type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) were used; adjusted hazard ratios (aHR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI) are reported.
Results
Mean age was 50.7 years, 61.4% male, 55.1% T2DM, 23.7% South Asian, 57.3% F3–F4 and 37.9% MASH. Over 21,980 person-months (median follow-up 60.0 [IQR 40.5–84.0] months), cardiovascular events (n=14, 3.5%) and extrahepatic malignancies (n=19, 4.8%) together outnumbered liver-related events (n=21, 5.3%); 15 patients died (3.8%), and 42 (10.6%) reached the major composite.
Advanced fibrosis independently predicted liver-related events and the major composite, but neither cardiovascular events nor extrahepatic malignancy; its univariable association with mortality (HR 1.93 [1.09–3.41], p=0.024) did not survive adjustment (Table).
MASH predicted liver-related events when adjusted for age and T2DM alone (aHR 3.08 [1.22–7.73], p=0.017), but not when fibrosis was co-entered (aHR 2.41 [0.96–6.09], p=0.062), with fibrosis dominant (aHR 6.60 [1.53–28.60], p=0.012). MASH predicted neither
cardiovascular events (aHR 0.68 [0.21–2.16], p=0.513) nor extrahepatic malignancy (aHR 1.11 [0.43–2.88], p=0.824). Lobular inflammation and hepatocyte ballooning predicted no outcome.
Table. Outcomes by baseline fibrosis stage, with adjusted hazards for advanced fibrosis
Outcome
| F0–F2 (n=169)
| F3–F4 (n=227)
| aHR (95% CI)
| p
|
Liver-related event
| 2 (1.2%)
| 19 (8.4%)
| 1.96 (1.13–3.40)
| 0.016
|
Cardiovascular event
| 4 (2.4%)
| 10 (4.4%)
| 0.89 (0.55–1.41)
| 0.612
|
Extrahepatic malignancy
| 6 (3.6%)
| 13 (5.7%)
| 0.96 (0.62–1.47)
| 0.836
|
All-cause mortality
| 3 (1.8%)
| 12 (5.3%)
| 1.63 (0.86–3.10)
| 0.134
|
Major composite
| 7 (4.1%)
| 35 (15.4%)
| 2.84 (1.22–6.64)
| 0.016
|
Conclusion
Liver histology is prognostically liver-specific. Fibrosis stage stratified hepatic risk but carried no information on cardiovascular or oncological risk, which together accounted for more events than the liver itself, and MASH and its individual components added nothing beyond fibrosis for any endpoint. Patients with early fibrosis are therefore not low-risk overall: a histology-led pathway will not identify those destined for the commonest events. Fibrosis regression remains the right hepatic trial endpoint; extrahepatic risk requires cardiometabolic, not histological, stratification. Null extrahepatic findings should be read alongside the event numbers observed.
References
1. Angulo P, et al. Liver fibrosis, but no other histologic features, is associated with long-term outcomes of patients with nonalcoholic fatty liver disease. Gastroenterology. 2015;149(2):389–397.
2. Simon TG, et al. Cancer risk in patients with biopsy-confirmed nonalcoholic fatty liver disease: a population-based cohort study. Hepatology. 2021;74(5):2410–2423.
3. Targher G, et al. Non-alcoholic fatty liver disease and risk of incident cardiovascular disease: a meta-analysis. J Hepatol. 2016;65(3):589–600.
Disclosure
The authors declare no conflicts of interest. This study received no specific funding from any agency in the public, commercial or not-for-profit sectors.