Introduction
Endoscopic retrograde cholangiopancreatography (ERCP) is now the gold standard for the treatment of bile duct stones. However, recurrence stones is frequent after their complete removal by endoscopic treatment.
Aims & Methods
The present study is retrospective, descriptive and analytic, including all patients who underwent ERCP for common bile duct (CBD) stones between January 2008 and January 2024.
Recurrent CBD stone was defined as the finding of a stone at least 6 months after the initial ERCP in which complete stone extraction was performed.
Factors associated with recurrent CBD stones were studied by logistic regression analysis.
Statistical analysis was performed using Jamovi software.
The aim of our study is to identify predictors of recurrent CBD stones after ERCP.
Results
Among 1151 patients who underwent ERCP for lithiasis pathology, 88 patients or 7.7% had recurrent CBD stone.
Mean age of the patients was 64.5 +/-13.4 years, with extremes ranging from 22 to 94 years. Sex ratio (M/F) was 0.69, with a female predominance of 59.1%.
20.5% of patients presented with acute angiocholitis and 6.8% with acute pancreatitis.
A periampullary diverticulum was found in 5.7% of patients (n=5).
In univariate analysis, the risk factors for recurrent CBD stone were: older age (OR :37; IC95% : [10,7- 127,2] ; p<0,001), female gender ( OR :9,9 ;IC95% : [4,49-22,04] ; p<0,001), CBD diameter > 15 mm (OR : 7,36 ;IC95% : [5,51-9,8] ; p<0,001), presence of angiocholitis ( OR : 2.06 ;IC95% : [1,12-3,8] ; p=0,02), number of CBD stones (OR :8,61; IC95% : [6,51-11,39] ; p=0,018), size of CBD stones (OR :2,51 ;IC95% : [1,43-4,39] ; p=0,001), while enlargement EST (OR :0,18; IC95% : [0,08-0,44] ; p<0,001) was a protective factor.
After multivariate analysis, and adjusting for the factors studied, only older age (OR:1.96; CI95%: [1.94-2.93]; p=0.001), number of CBD stones (OR: 1.99; CI95%: [1,2-3,4] ; p=0,037) and size of CBD stones (OR :4,06; IC95% : [3,51-6,72] ; p=0,003) were risk factors, and enlargement EST (OR :0,31; IC95% : [0,11-0,85] ; p=0,024) was protective factor.
Conclusion
In our study, the predictive factors for recurrent CBD stones were advanced age, the presence of impaction and a large stone.