Introduction
Cirrhosis stemming from alcohol use, when complicated by heart failure, has emerged as a critical public health crisis with grave implications for both morbidity and mortality[1][2]. Despite progress in cardiology and hepatology, the convergence of these conditions presents a unique management paradox and a heavy disability burden[3]. Anticipating future trajectories and identifying regional disparities is vital for effective resource allocation and healthcare planning. This study evaluates the years lived with disability (YLD) attributed to this dual burden across the United States and Europe from 1990 to 2023, with projections extending to 2050.
Aims & Methods
We analyzed Global Burden of Disease data for cirrhosis due to alcohol use with heart failure complication across four geographic regions (USA, Central Europe, Eastern Europe, and Western Europe) from 1990 to 2023. Data were stratified by age group (15-49 years, 50-69 years, 70+ years) and sex. We calculated age-standardized YLD rates per 100,000 population with 95% uncertainty intervals (UI). Temporal trends were assessed using generalized additive models. Inequality metrics including Gini coefficients and Theil indices quantified inter-regional disparities. K-means clustering identified distinct disease trajectory patterns across 24 region-age-sex combinations. Time-series forecasting models projected burden through 2050 with 95% confidence intervals. Statistical analyses were performed using Python.
Results
Between 1990 and 2023 Western Europe maintained the highest burden throughout, with YLD rates increasing from 0.787 per 100,000 in 1990 to 1.012 per 100,000 in 2023, a 28.6% increase. Central Europe experienced the most dramatic relative increase of 82.9%, rising from 0.394 to 0.720 per 100,000. Eastern Europe demonstrated a 74.7% increase from 0.226 to 0.395 per 100,000, while the USA showed a 38.5% increase from 0.408 to 0.565 per 100,000. Pronounced age gradients were evident across all regions, with 70+ years populations experiencing 10 to 16 folds higher YLD rates compared to 15-49 years. In 2023, 70+ years YLD rates reached 1.855 per 100,000 in Western Europe, 1.140 per 100,000 in Central Europe, 1.090 per 100,000 in the USA, and 0.713 per 100,000 in Eastern Europe. Substantial sex disparities persisted, with male-to-female YLD ratios of 3.27 in Central Europe, 2.45 in Western Europe, 1.93 in the USA, and 1.86 in Eastern Europe. Inequality analysis revealed declining Gini coefficients from 0.286 in 1990 to 0.227 in 2023 for 15-49 years. Clustering analysis identified four distinct trajectory patterns, with Western Europe 70+ years males exhibiting unique non-monotonic trends peaking in 2005. Forecasts to 2050 project continued burden increases in the USA (+65.4%), Central Europe (+49.6%), and Eastern Europe (+66.6%), while Western Europe is projected to experience a 19.0% decline. Age-stratified projections indicate disproportionate increases with USA 70+ years rates projected to reach 1.893 per 100,000 by 2050, a 73.7% increase from 2023 levels.
Conclusion
This analysis underscores a mounting disability burden from alcohol-related cirrhosis and heart failure, characterized by deep age and sex inequities. The forecasted 50–75% increases in the USA, Central Europe, and Eastern Europe demand urgent alcohol-reduction strategies, particularly for aging populations. The 3.3-fold male predominance necessitates sex-specific interventions. While Western Europe’s decline may offer a potential roadmap for success, other regions must brace for increased demand in hepatology, cardiology, and palliative services.
References
1) Rasoul, D., Ajay, A., Abdullah, A., Mathew, J., Lee Wei En, B., Mashida, K., & Sankaranarayanan, R. (2023). Alcohol and Heart Failure. European cardiology, 18, e65. https://doi.org/10.15420/ecr.2023.12
2)Grobman, B., Mansur, A., & Lu, C. Y. (2024). Disparities in Heart Failure Deaths among Patients with Cirrhosis. Journal of clinical medicine, 13(20), 6153. https://doi.org/10.3390/jcm13206153
3) Tonon, M., & Piano, S. (2021). Alcohol-related cirrhosis: The most challenging etiology of cirrhosis is more burdensome than ever. Clinical and molecular hepatology, 27(1), 94–96. https://doi.org/10.3350/cmh.2020.0305